## Using Elementary Statistics to Predict Presidential Outcome

### Measures of central tendency

### Regression analysis

### Hypothesis Testing

ANOVA Table | |||||

Df | Sum Sq | Mean Sq | F | P-value | |

Your.Party | 4 | 1350 | 337.4 | 2.991 | 0.0194 |

Residuals | 259 | 29219 | 112.8 |

Your.Party | Mean_Year |

Independent | 2018.642 |

Democrat | 2020.734 |

Republican | 2022.717 |

Other | 2025.217 |

**Null Hypothesis: **Males and females have the same predicted year that the first female would be elected president

**Alternative Hypothesis:** Males and females have a significantly different predicted year that the first female would be elected president.

The variable of interest will be the mean predicted year for males and females.

mean in group Female mean in group Male

2020.348 2022.624

t = -1.6822, p-value = 0.09398

since p-value=0.09398(>0.05) we fail to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that males and females do not have a significantly different predicted year that the first female would be elected president.

Year for Female | Year for Male | |

Min. | 2012 | 2012 |

1st Qu | 2016 | 2016 |

Median | 2020 | 2020 |

Mean | 2020 | 2023 |

3rd Qu | 2020 | 2024 |

Max. | 2072 | 2072 |

Descriptives: observed freq. expected freq. specified prob.

Democrat 178 71.25 0.25

Independent 27 71.25 0.25

Other 12 71.25 0.25

Republican 68 71.25 0.25

Since out of 287 entries 6 are null

Test results:

X-squared statistic: 236.839

degrees of freedom: 3

p-value: <.001

since the p-value is less than 0.05 we can reject the null hypothesis and can conclude that the proportions of the different political parties are not all equal.

Null Hypothesis:the proportion of people feeling that the first female president will be a democrat (labeled “Candidate Party”) is the same for males and females.i.e p=0.5

Alternative Hypothesis:the proportion of people feeling that the first female president will be a democrat (labeled “Candidate Party”) is lower for males than females.i.e, p>0.5

Variable of interest::the proportion of Females feeling that the first female president will be a democrat (labeled “Candidate Party”)

Descriptives: observed freq. expected freq. specified prob.

Female 91 88.5 0.5

Male 86 88.5 0.5 p=0.5141 z=0.376

p-value=0.3535(>0.05). Therefore we fail to reject the Null Hypothesis and conclude that proportion of people feeling that the first female president will be a democrat (labeled “Candidate Party”) is not lower for males than females. Null Hypothesis: political party of the respondent (labeled “Your Party”) is not associated with the political party of the first female president (labeled “Candidate Party”) Alternative Hypothesis: political party of the respondent (labeled “Your Party”) is associated with the political party of the first female president (labeled “Candidate Party”)

Candidate Part | |||||

YourParty | Democrat | Independent | Other | Republican | |

Democrat | 92 | 6 | 1 | 14 | |

Independent | 29 | 9 | 1 | 14 | |

Other | 25 | 7 | 7 | 13 | |

Republican | 29 | 4 | 3 | 27 |

X-squared = 54.045, df = 16, p-value = 5.098e-06

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